NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Austin Robins and I go over our favorite picks for Sunday

Austin Robins  and I give out our best bets of the week and dive into some NFL thoughts. We get into the Jets and Patriots defying preseason expectations, the Giants’ woes, the Raiders receiving corps and the Texans-Chiefs Sunday night game. Best of luck!

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This weekend’s football picks

Looking to bounce back after last weekend

The first step is acceptance. Last week was bad. 1-4 in NCAA games, with 3 blowout losses. 2-3 in the NFL and lucky to get the Atlanta victory. It’s going to happen early in the season, but would like to limit the damage. So, this week trying to get back on track. Consulted with more people on these, dug a little deeper on research and re-examined some of my gut feelings on teams. I’m excited for the slate of games this week and think the picks will get better results. Follow or fade, but enjoy the weekend. Best of luck!

 

NCAA:
Minnesota -13 v. Maryland
Third string quarterback on the road against a team I like. Row the boat.

Washington -27 @ Oregon St.
I was down on Washington, but clearly put too much stock in their first half of the year against an improved Rutgers team. Jake Browning and co. have looked strong since then and were effective against a pretty good Colorado defense. Add that to the fact Oregon State is awful and I’m okay laying all the points.

Alabama -27.5 v. Ole Miss
Ole Miss is a program in a deep mess and they have some key injuries to their offensive weapons. They already lost to Cal by double digits and Bama is better than Cal (hot take). Alabama looked as good as ever last week and I think the Tide keep the dominance rolling. It’s a big spread, but Alabama covers another one.

Clemson -7.5 @ Virginia Tech
If anything, I would stay away from this game, because I can’t take the Hokies. Not only because of the Louisville pick a couple of weeks ago, but because the Tigers have looked to good to feel good going against. Tech’s defense is better than Louisville and they can move the ball, but I think Clemson rises to the challenge in Lane Stadium and pulls away.

Cal +14 @ Oregon
I think this is a shootout and Cal will at least get the cover. The Golden Bears hung tough against USC and the Ducks fell to Arizona State, so I struggle to see Oregon blow this one open even in Eugene.

Last Week: 1-4
Season: 8-7-1

NFL:
Ravens+3 v. Steelers
The Ravens are a much better team at home and I think their debacle in London was an anomaly. The Steelers struggle on the road and have looked sluggish in general. These games are always close and I lean Ravens outright so I’ll take the points.

Texans+2 v. Titans
Texans offense looked much better in New England and I think Tennessee benefited from a Seahawks defense worn down by off the field distractions, as they just faded in the second half. The Titans were locked in a close one with Jacksonville until turnovers helped them pull away. If the Texans can hold on to the ball, I like Houston at home

Patriots -9 v. Panthers
This a clash of strength on strength and weakness on weakness. The Pats’ offense and the Panthers defense should be fun to watch, but the other side will be two struggling units. I have faith in Brady to win his match up and I think Belichick figures out how to do enough on the defensive side of the ball. When picks are struggling, seems smart to lean on Brady and Belichick.

Buccaneers -3 vs. Giants
I’m scared of a desperate Giants team that seemed to put together something of an offense late against the Eagles. I’m not scared that Tampa Bay is as bad as they looked last week. The Vikings are a good team and the Bucs were dealing with the travel and emotional roller coaster that has been associated with Irma. The defense is still banged up, but another week should help the staff figure out better fixes. I think the line should be higher so like getting it at -3 and I think the Giants fall to 0-4.

49ers +7 @ Arizona
The 49ers look ready to get in the win column and Arizona has looked lost. The Cardinals looked a little better against Dallas, but I don’t think Palmer is as big advantage over Hoyer as the names make it sound. Shanahan should have San Francisco moving the ball and even if Arians’ squad claws out a win, I like the Niners to cover.

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 4-5-1

Podcast: Power 5 Conference Landscape

Analyzing the top teams and potential surprises for each major conference

Ryan and I dive into each of college football’s power conferences to talk who we think will win, but also the top challengers we see. Also discussed: Different conferences’ playoff chances, early picks we like and conference quality. Subscribe on iTunes!

College Football Picks

Best bets and other thoughts

I broke down the big games of the week on the pod, but wanted to post my best bets after combing through those games and many more. As for the big games I’m not picking, here are my final quick takes:

Alabama -19 @ Vandy
I like the Commodores this season, but think Alabama shows its head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. Vandy will rally in the next few weeks, but ‘Bama covers here.

TCU @ Oklahoma State -14
I think the Cowboys are top-5 caliber, but 14 is a lot of points against an offense like the Horned Frogs’. I think the Cowboys cover, but garbage time scares me.

Penn State -13 @ Iowa
Penn State’s offense is a lot better than anything the Hawkeyes can offer in all 3 phases. I’m staying away because weird things happen in Iowa City, but the Nittany Lions should cover.

Best Bets:

NC State +13
Tough spot for Florida State breaking in a new QB after three weeks off. They may win, but it will be close

Maryland -4
Maryland’s offense has looked potent through three weeks and UCF is another team that could struggle after an Irma-forced layoff. This should be a shootout, but the Terps pull away at home.

Wake Forest -5.5
Wake Forest has been as explosive as any team in the nation (against less than formidable foes, but still). Appalachian State is a name that scares bettors, but this team won’t hang with a Demon Deacons squad that may be a player in the ACC title race.

Mississippi St +4.5
I have not seen enough from Georgia to think they can move the ball if Mississippi State shuts down the run. I like Nick Fitzgerald much more than Jake Fromm and think Mississippi State wins this battle of the bulldogs

Colorado +11.5
I can’t shake how rough the Huskies looked against Rutgers and Colorado has looked formidable in their first 3 games. In Boulder, I think the Buffaloes push the Huskies and even if they lose it will be a one-possession game

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 7-2-1

 

 

NFL Week 2 Picks

Quick pitches for my best bets

If you’re not convinced quickly, it might not be right for you. That’s the approach I’m taking with the picks this week. The NFL is off to a bit of a sluggish start in general so its hard to feel great about a lot of these teams, especially with some of the lines this week. I found five I like and I think I can pitch them all pretty simply. If you want a longer explanation, check out the podcast. If it doesn’t feel right, be careful.

Packers +3 @ Falcons
Revenge. Rodgers is better than Ryan, Packers defense is improved. Falcons looked rough against the Bears. I think the Packers can win so I’ll take the points.

Seahawks -14 v. 49ers
Go with what you know. The 49ers are awful. Seahawks have question marks, but they should not be exposed here.

Raiders-14 v. Jets
Same approach. The Jets are unquestionably bad. More than two touchdowns worse than the Raiders.

Rams -3 v. Redskins
Washington is not good either. I am betting against the teams I really think are terrible. The Rams aren’t as good as they looked last week, but they can handle Washington at home.

Buccs -7 v. Bears
Emotional setting. Buccaneers ready to launch a playoff run and the Bears won’t look as sharp as the did against the Falcons.

Last Week: 2-2-1

Power 5 Sleepers

Week 3 Picks included

Earlier this week, I noted the strength of each conference at the top. Each one has a team well set up for the playoff race and most have more than one. Looking at each conference, you can identify the 2 or 3 favorites:

SEC: Alabama, LSU, Georgia
ACC: Clemson, Louisville, Virginia Tech
Pac-12: USC, Washington, UCLA
Big 12: Oklahoma, Oklahoma St.
Big Ten: Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St.

Thats not an exhaustive list of favorites, but its a pretty good idea of which teams we expect to hear from at the end of the season. Yet, each conference has a team that, through two weeks, looks like it might be able to unexpectedly get into that conversation. These sleeper teams are ones I see with shots to get to their conference championship games, which will have them in the New Year’s six discussion–if not more.

SEC: Vanderbilt
Derek Mason has improved the Commodores record every year since he took the helm in 2014, getting Vandy to a bowl last season. This year, led by a stout defense and QB Kyle Shurmur (the Vikings’ offensive coordinator’s son), they look ready to make some noise. They already put the clamps on a good Middle Tennessee State team and crushed an FCS foe like they should. It’s tough sledding to have Alabama, @Florida and Georgia in consecutive weeks, but the SEC slate is always difficult. The SEC East is wide open and if they can pull an upset and get to 9-3 they have a shot to get to Atlanta.

This week: I love Vanderbilt +4 against Kansas State. K-State is a tough matchup for anybody, but the game is in Nashville and Vanderbilt is ready to get a big win heading into their Bama game next week. Continue reading “Power 5 Sleepers”