MLB Playoff Predictions

Two takes on how October will unfold

Nick Yusko and I join forces again to let you know how we see the MLB postseason playing out. We wrote this before both Wildcard games, but the editor (ahem…myself) took a little time getting it off the presses. Here’s what we thing is going to happen. Let us know what you think.

AL Wild Card:
Josh:
My thoughts on Twins have been documented. But, as I said, I’m picking the Yankees

Nick:
Remarkable season for the Twins as they take on a young Yankees squad. The Twins have a very good team but I have a hard time seeing their lineup do much against young fireballer Luis Severino. Yankees bats come alive early at home against Ervin Santana and their dominant bullpen closes out the Twins.
Yankees over Twins

NL Wild Card:
Josh:
I’ve always had a soft spot for the Rockies and have enjoyed the ride their MVP candidates (Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon) have taken fans on, but they don’t have an arm near the caliber of Zach Greinke.
Diamondbacks over Rockies

Nick:
Another surprising matchup here in the NL Wild Card game with the Rockies at the Diamondbacks. The Rockies boasted a potent lineup for the past few years, but often lacked in the pitching department. Quite simply, that’s still a problem. Zack Greinke is better than John Gray and the Diamondbacks lineup itself is nothing to be ashamed of, plus this game isn’t at Coors.
Diamondbacks over Rockies

ALDS:
Josh:
The Indians have been the darling of the second half, but I think they peaked a bit too early. This Yankees team has the lineup to give the Indians’ deep staff trouble and a bullpen to rival any in the league. Cleveland lets this one slip away. All rise.
Yankees over Indians in 4

Nick:
The Indians have been the most dominant team in baseball for the second half of the season. Their remarkable run to end the season netted them home field advantage in the American League. In the postseason, you often see a lot of low scoring pitching duels. No starting rotation has been better than the Indians lately and the Yankees won’t have Severino right off the bat. Indians’ arms dominate this series and they breeze past a young Yankees squad that will be contenders in the coming years.
Indians over Yankees in 3

Josh:
The Red Sox don’t have much besides Chris Sale and the Astros lineup may be the deepest in the playoffs. Altuve, Correa and Springer finally get their postseason moment–aided greatly by the arms of Verlander and Keuchel.
Astros over Red Sox in 4

Nick:
The Astros hit a lull towards the middle of the season. However, they acquired an experienced ace in Justin Verlander and have been playing some of their best baseball as of late. Despite injuries taking some key cogs out of their lineup, the Astros still led the majors in runs scored and batting average. With David Price limited to bullpen duties, the Red Sox do not have anyone in their rotation that scares you outside of Chris Sale. He may take game one, but the Astros are a superior team and win this series.
Astros over Red Sox in 4

NLDS:
Nick:
The Dodgers put together an incredible regular season. Outside of one unexplainable losing stretch, they have been dominant. However, the Diamondbacks have had their number. The D-backs swept a pair of late season series from their division foes. Clayton Kershaw has been the best regular season of this generation, however he has yet to exorcise his postseason demons. He also has not looked all too sharp in his return from the disabled list. The acquisition of JD Martinez continues to pay dividends and an underrated rotation of Ray, Godley, Walker (don’t forget about Greinke!) has me leaning towards the snakes in a hard-fought series.
Diamondbacks over Dodgers in 4

Josh:
The Dodgers have struggled all year with the Diamondbacks, but will break out when it matters. Not having Greinke to match up with Kershaw will cost Arizona and Kenley Jansen will put the clamps on the D-backs in pressure situations. The Dodgers get this one easier than expected.
Dodgers over Diamondbacks in 3

Nick:
The Nationals got a big scare in Max Scherzer’s last start as he exited with a potential hamstring injury. The potential Cy Young winner not being at 100% is a huge blow to the Nationals rotation. On the offensive side, the Nationals lineup is phenomenal, featuring a lineup as fierce as anyone with Murphy, Zimmerman, Rendon, Harper (though he seldom played the last 2 months of the season). Meanwhile, the defending champs enter after a ho-hum season that saw the Cubs get out to a slow start before they turned it on to have the second-best record in the MLB in the second half. The starting staff has some questions, but a key pickup in Jose Quintana could prove huge. On the offensive side, the Cubs boast a lineup that equally has as much depth as the Nationals and one that can wear out starting pitchers. I think the Cubs are being slept on for how well they played in the second half and take care of Dusty Baker (who is notorious for leaving his starting pitchers in too long) and the Nationals.
Cubs over Nationals in 4

Josh:
The Cubs did well to get here, but have not looked right all year. They have gotten better in recent months, but the Nationals have the lineup to hang with Rizzo, Bryant and co. Plus, the Nats have two starters (in Scherzer and Strasburg) better than anything the Cubs will trot out. Unless Scherzer is really hurt, the NAtionals finally get past the NLDS. These Cubs will be back.
Nationals over Cubs in 5

 

ALCS:
Josh:
The Astros will have the edge in the rotation and the deeper lineup. However, if the Yankees can get in front, their bullpen will be hard to crack. Houston will have an emotional city behind them and will ultimately prove to have too much firepower for New York. Houston heads to just its second world series.
Astros over Yankees in 5

Nick:
In what I expect to be a spectacular series between the two best teams in baseball (in my opinion), I simply think the Indians experience and bitterness from last season wins out in the end. While the hitting metrics side slightly with Altuve, Correa, Springer, and co both of these teams have huge offensive firepower. The Indians themselves have Lindor, Ramirez, Encarnacion, and Jay Bruce. The old adage is “good pitching beats good hitting” and I think that holds true here. I like the Indians pitching staff a little more than the Astros plus the home field advantage will be key. I like the series to go the distance, with the Indians winning at home in game seven.
Indians over Astros in 7

NLCS:
Josh:
Dodgers and Nationals will be a familiar series. Kershaw shut the door on the Nationals last year, but won’t be enough this time. The Nationals have been under-the-radar much of the year, but ride their high-powered lineup and get enough from their starters to get past a Dodgers squad that will be left with a lot of questions. Washington will need to avoid a game 7 in LA, but I think they get the job done.
Nationals over Dodgers in 6

Nick:
Based on their regular season matchups, I expect this to be a bit of a higher scoring series than typical postseason baseball. While I think the Diamondbacks come into the playoffs hot, the Cubs have still been better over the entire second half. Additionally, the Cubs already got a bit of taste of a playoff atmosphere with two late season series against the Brewers and Cardinals. I think that experience on top of last year’s run to the World Series makes the difference here. In what ends as a great turnaround season for the Diamondbacks, we get a World Series rematch.
Cubs over Diamondbacks in 5

World Series:

Nick:
I think it is fitting after last season’s World Series classic, it is only fitting we get a rematch. The Indians are back and look better than ever. The Cubs are the young but experienced squad that has played a lot of baseball games the past few years. Throw in the boosts to their lineup and the fully healthy rotation and I think the Indians are better than this year’s Cubs. I think the games will be close and tightly contested, but I like Francona as a game manager more than Maddon. Unfortunately, I also see this series being rather run-of-the-mill in comparison to last year’s, but it feels like justice for the Indians to come back and end their long drought against the team that ended their own the year before at the Indians’ expense.
Indians over Cubs in 5

Josh:
I picked this matchup at the beginning of the season so am sticking with it (hold the applause because I picked it last year too…). I think this matchup features two teams due for October glory, two loaded lineups and impressive pitching. Dusty Baker finally getting to the World Series is another great storyline and the #HoustonStrong would be on full display. Ultimately, The Astros have been the better team all year long and combining that with home field pushes them over the top.
Astros over Nats in 5

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The Minnesota Twins are surprising everyone

They have the pieces to keep it up

The Minnesota Twins will cap off a stunning regular season when they clinch the playoffs this week. As many waited for them to fade, they have gone from last year’s league-worst record to a wildcard spot. I have picked against them throughout the wildcard homestretch, but they have stayed comfortably in position as the second wildcard and are destined for Yankee Stadium and the American League Wildcard game. For many, that will be the first time they have seen the Twins play this season.

Baseball’s season is notoriously long. Its a 162-game slog where moments struggle to break through until late in the season and the post-season. It’s hard for any Cinderella Story to really jump out when there are more games than characters in a tweet. This is especially true when the slipper is in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Yet, the Twin Cities have seen a team do what very few have done before. They have gone from 59-103 to a wildcard spot and are only the 13th team to go from 100 losses to a winning record. FiveThrityEight had them with just a 7% chance to make the playoffs before the season and virtually no one saw them coming. That may include the Twins, who were sellers at the trade deadline.

Paul Molitor’s squad is a unique combination of established stars overachieving and a young core coming into its own. Joe Mauer has been around long enough to see the Twins’ last run to the postseason and his uptick in performance has helped spur this team on. His batting average climbed from last year’s .261 to over .300 this season, and his adjusted OPS has climbed from 104 to 116. Brian Dozier is one of the only Twins who was better last year, but a slight decline from his 42 home run season still has him leading the team in dingers, while being second in adjusted OPS. Then there is Ervin Santana. He pitched well last season (he actually had a lower ERA and FIP last year), but maintaining that another season while the team has improved in the lineup and behind him on the mound, has led to an ace-caliber W-L record for him. The Twins’ established players have done enough to allow a young core to lift them to the postseason.

That young core is headlined in the lineup by Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario. All aged 25 or younger, each of these players has a WAR greater than 1 and Buxton leads the team at 5.1. Buxton’s bat has not been as hot as the Twins would like, but the 2012 second overall pick is far and away the team’s best fielder and gives them an asset in center field that few can match. He has also stolen 23 bases in a row without being caught. Meanwhile, Polanco and Rosario are near the top of the team in Offensive WAR and help give the Twins a lineup that can be dangerous 1-9.

On the mound, the youth revolution is led by 23-year old Jose Berrios. He leads the rotation in FIP and averages almost a strikeout per inning. He has been so impressive, there are some calls for Berrios to get the start against the Yankees.That will probably be Santana, but Berrios could be the Twins top pitching weapon if they can get to the ALDS.

Meanwhile, the bullpen is another case of youth and experience combining to elevate the Twins. Veteran closer Brandon Kintzler picked up 28 saves before going to the Nationals in a deadline deal and paving the way for youth to step up in the pen. While 37 year old Matt Belise has gotten the bulk of save opportunities since Kintzler’s departure, a young three-headed monster is emerging. Taylor Rogers, Alan Busenitz and Trevor Hildenberger are maturing when needed most. All three are just 26 and give the Twins different strengths. Rogers is deadly as a lefty specialist and has been called on more than any reliever in Molitor’s pen. Busenitz is emerging as a setup man late in the season with a sub-1.5 ERA. The best of the trio may be Hildenberger who has the team’s best FIP and averages 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The Twins should feel good about their relievers as the season wraps up and should feel great about next year’s bullpen.

The Twins have flown under the radar all season because there’s no dramatic explanation for this team’s success. They have just improved up and down the roster from one year to the next and that wide-scale incremental improvement has been just enough to earn a date with the Yankees. The Yankees are the Twins’ polar opposite–nothing they do flys under the radar. A perfect microcosm: the Home Run Derby is remembered for Aaron Judge’s fireworks display, but you know who took second? Miguel Sano of the Twins. In fact, Sano is currently injured, but may be a factor for the Twins postseason hopes if he can get healthy.

This team has the pieces to make a run. The starting pitching is good, the lineup is deep and the bullpen has multiple weapons. They even have the presence of Bartolo Colon. They went 2-4 against New York in the regular season and 6-10 against their likely ALDS opponent–and division rivals–the Cleveland Indians. Few will believe in the Twins, but few have all season. The Twins will wrap up one shocking result this week and all attention will turn to their next opportunity: the October 3rd match-up with Aaron Judge and the Yankees.

I’m picking the Yankees.